Pardon my English. I wrote a slightly bland Portuguese text earlier, wishing the new government well because, no matter what happens, that’s what we should always hope after any election, but the more I find out, the worse it seems.
I’ve been to visit my daughter so I spent most of the day on a train, trying to work, all squished up between a window and some big geezer, so I had only really caught snatches of what happened. The first thing I looked at when I woke up said the Socialists were ahead, but that turned out to be bollocks. Well not bollocks, but it must have been a cached page from earlier in the night. More up-to-date sources said the Aliança Democrática had won by a super-narrow margin, but although I could see the percentages were all roughly in line with the polls, the big shock was how many deputados Chega picked up. I knew it was grim, but when I was finally off the train, I listened to a podcast that spelled it out in more detail and it’s bloody awful. They’re still only in third place, but they got 48 seats, about a quarter of the parliament.
The actual winner isn’t decided yet, because it’s not like a British election where you find out who has won basically straight away; some of the overseas votes haven’t been counted and the president will only name a prime minister after that. Luís Montenegro, the likely PM, has assured everyone he won’t cooperate with Chega, but… Well, it’s hard to see how he can keep that promise, since even with the IL on his side he is well short of a majority. Likewise if the Socialists were to do a deal with the Bloco Esquerda, the Partido Comunista Putinista and Livre to form a sort of “Geringonça 2”, it wouldn’t secure 50% either. So Chega look like they hold a lot of power right now, like some sort of evil version of the Lib Dems in 2010. Ventura has been waving his dick around proclaiming victory, and everyone else is pretty depressed.
Part of the problem seems to have been that another, completely irrelevant right-wing party, the ADN, got a lot of votes intended for the AD, so they went from 11,000 votes to more like 100,000. This transfer of a huge block of votes away from the centre right caused the AD to lose a lot of marginal seats it would otherwise have won. Seen in this light, Montenegro’s decision to form the AD doesn’t seem so clever, doesn’t it? Gain 2 deputados from your new ally, lose christ-knows-how-many potential seats for your own party. What a master-stroke.
But it’s fair to say that even without that anomaly, any vote that sees a bunch of fart-sniffing yahoos like Chega gain one million votes should give us all pause.
I don’t really have anything intelligent to say about all this. Being an optimistic soul, I can imagine a way through all this that leads to a positive outcome, but the negative outcomes seem more likely, and I don’t know anything anyway, so if I waffle on, it is only going to create a lot of pointless noise.
Sigh.
Luso 